W. P. Carey Inc. logo WPC - W. P. Carey Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $80.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $88.00
LOW: $73.00
MEDIAN: $78.50
CONSENSUS: $80.00
UPSIDE: 13.67%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.5% below fair value
Current Price $70.38
Bear Case $60.69 13.8% downside ($60.69 - $70.38) / $70.38 = -13.8% $4.33 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $73.69 4.7% upside ($73.69 - $70.38) / $70.38 = 4.7% $4.33 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $86.69 23.2% upside ($86.69 - $70.38) / $70.38 = 23.2% $4.33 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
4.33$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.33) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $4.33 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $73.69 per share. Dividend yield: 5.3%. DDM cross-check: $68.95.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $80.00
Analyst Range $73.00 – $88.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 8%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify