WPC - W. P. Carey Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$80.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$88.00
LOW:
$73.00
MEDIAN:
$78.50
CONSENSUS:
$80.00
UPSIDE:
13.67%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($4.33) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
16.2x
Plain-Language Summary
At $4.33 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $73.69 per share. Dividend yield: 5.3%. DDM cross-check: $68.95.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$80.00
Analyst Range
$73.00 – $88.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify