WPC - W. P. Carey Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$77.10
DETAILS
HIGH:
$88.00
LOW:
$68.00
MEDIAN:
$75.50
CONSENSUS:
$77.10
UPSIDE:
20.11%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($4.41) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
14.6x
Plain-Language Summary
At $4.41 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $74.92 per share. Dividend yield: 5.8%. DDM cross-check: $69.70.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$77.10
Analyst Range
$68.00 – $88.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify