W. P. Carey Inc. logo WPC - W. P. Carey Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 10
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $75.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $79.00
LOW: $73.00
MEDIAN: $75.00
CONSENSUS: $75.80
UPSIDE: 1.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 1.3% below fair value
Current Price $74.48
Bear Case $62.16 16.5% downside ($62.16 - $74.48) / $74.48 = -16.5% $4.43 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $75.48 1.3% upside ($75.48 - $74.48) / $74.48 = 1.3% $4.43 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $88.80 19.2% upside ($88.80 - $74.48) / $74.48 = 19.2% $4.43 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
4.43$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.43) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.80 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.48 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify