W. P. Carey Inc. logo WPC - W. P. Carey Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $77.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $88.00
LOW: $68.00
MEDIAN: $75.50
CONSENSUS: $77.10
UPSIDE: 20.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.3% below fair value
Current Price $64.19
Bear Case $61.70 3.9% downside ($61.70 - $64.19) / $64.19 = -3.9% $4.41 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $74.92 16.7% upside ($74.92 - $64.19) / $64.19 = 16.7% $4.41 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $88.14 37.3% upside ($88.14 - $64.19) / $64.19 = 37.3% $4.41 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
4.41$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.41) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $4.41 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $74.92 per share. Dividend yield: 5.8%. DDM cross-check: $69.70.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $77.10
Analyst Range $68.00 – $88.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 3%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 5.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify