W. P. Carey Inc. logo WPC - W. P. Carey Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 11
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $78.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $85.00
LOW: $73.00
MEDIAN: $78.00
CONSENSUS: $78.43
UPSIDE: 4.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 1.8% below fair value
Current Price $74.77
Bear Case $62.70 16.1% downside ($62.70 - $74.77) / $74.77 = -16.1% $4.43 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $76.14 1.8% upside ($76.14 - $74.77) / $74.77 = 1.8% $4.43 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $89.57 19.8% upside ($89.57 - $74.77) / $74.77 = 19.8% $4.43 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
4.43$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.43) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $78.43 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.14 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify