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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 78.3% above fair value
Current Price $79.77
Bear Case $37.28 53.3% downside ($37.28 - $79.77) / $79.77 = -53.3% $3.73 × 10x P/E
Fair Value $44.73 43.9% downside ($44.73 - $79.77) / $79.77 = -43.9% $3.73 × 12x P/E
Bull Case $52.19 34.6% downside ($52.19 - $79.77) / $79.77 = -34.6% $3.73 × 14x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

12.0x
3.73$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.73, the base-case value is $44.73 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.82.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $20.82 (below our primary estimate by 53%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples