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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 61.6% above fair value
Current Price $72.30
Bear Case $37.28 48.4% downside ($37.28 - $72.30) / $72.30 = -48.4% $3.73 × 10x P/E
Fair Value $44.73 38.1% downside ($44.73 - $72.30) / $72.30 = -38.1% $3.73 × 12x P/E
Bull Case $52.19 27.8% downside ($52.19 - $72.30) / $72.30 = -27.8% $3.73 × 14x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

12.0x
3.73$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.73, the base-case value is $44.73 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.82.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $20.82 (below our primary estimate by 53%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples