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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 65.6% above fair value
Current Price $72.53
Bear Case $36.50 49.7% downside ($36.50 - $72.53) / $72.53 = -49.7% $3.65 × 10x P/E
Fair Value $43.80 39.6% downside ($43.80 - $72.53) / $72.53 = -39.6% $3.65 × 12x P/E
Bull Case $51.10 29.5% downside ($51.10 - $72.53) / $72.53 = -29.5% $3.65 × 14x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

12.0x
3.65$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.65, the base-case value is $43.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.30.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $20.30 (below our primary estimate by 54%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples