The Williams Companies, Inc. logo WMB - The Williams Companies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 27
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $83.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $98.00
LOW: $75.00
MEDIAN: $83.50
CONSENSUS: $83.75
UPSIDE: 12.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 39.0% above fair value
Current Price $74.46
Bear Case $42.84 42.5% downside ($42.84 - $74.46) / $74.46 = -42.5% $2.56 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $53.55 28.1% downside ($53.55 - $74.46) / $74.46 = -28.1% $2.56 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $64.27 13.7% downside ($64.27 - $74.46) / $74.46 = -13.7% $2.56 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.9x
2.56$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 29.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $83.75 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.55 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 96% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $55.99 (above our primary estimate by 38%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $83.75 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples