The Williams Companies, Inc. logo WMB - The Williams Companies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 27
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $87.73 DETAILS
HIGH: $103.00
LOW: $75.00
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $87.73
UPSIDE: 18.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 118.7% above fair value
Current Price $74.19
Bear Case $27.14 63.4% downside ($27.14 - $74.19) / $74.19 = -63.4% $2.14 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $33.92 54.3% downside ($33.92 - $74.19) / $74.19 = -54.3% $2.14 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $40.70 45.1% downside ($40.70 - $74.19) / $74.19 = -45.1% $2.14 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.9x
2.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 34.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.14, the base-case value is $33.92 per share. DDM cross-check: $57.71.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (34 analysts) $87.73
Analyst Range $75.00 – $103.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 61%

Warnings

The company pays out 97% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $57.71 (above our primary estimate by 70%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $87.73 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples