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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 28.9% above fair value
Current Price $42.34
Bear Case $26.28 37.9% downside ($26.28 - $42.34) / $42.34 = -37.9% $2.19 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $32.85 22.4% downside ($32.85 - $42.34) / $42.34 = -22.4% $2.19 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $39.42 6.9% downside ($39.42 - $42.34) / $42.34 = -6.9% $2.19 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.19, the base-case value is $32.85 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.49.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 43%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 93% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $20.49 (below our primary estimate by 38%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples