John Wiley & Sons, Inc. logo WLY - John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.1% below fair value
Current Price $51.81
Bear Case $53.92 4.1% upside ($53.92 - $51.81) / $51.81 = 4.1% $4.16 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $67.41 30.1% upside ($67.41 - $51.81) / $51.81 = 30.1% $4.16 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $80.89 56.1% upside ($80.89 - $51.81) / $51.81 = 56.1% $4.16 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.2x
4.16$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.16, the base-case value is $67.41 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.56.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $20.56 (below our primary estimate by 69%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples