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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.3% below fair value
Current Price $53.71
Bear Case $53.92 0.4% upside ($53.92 - $53.71) / $53.71 = 0.4% $4.16 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $67.41 25.5% upside ($67.41 - $53.71) / $53.71 = 25.5% $4.16 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $80.89 50.6% upside ($80.89 - $53.71) / $53.71 = 50.6% $4.16 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.2x
4.16$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.16, the base-case value is $67.41 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.52.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $20.52 (below our primary estimate by 70%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples