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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.6% below fair value
Current Price $49.27
Bear Case $68.66 39.4% upside ($68.66 - $49.27) / $49.27 = 39.4% $5.30 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $85.83 74.2% upside ($85.83 - $49.27) / $49.27 = 74.2% $5.30 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $102.99 109.0% upside ($102.99 - $49.27) / $49.27 = 109.0% $5.30 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.2x
5.3$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.30, the base-case value is $85.83 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.52.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $20.52 (below our primary estimate by 76%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples