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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.0% below fair value
Current Price $49.80
Bear Case $68.66 37.9% upside ($68.66 - $49.80) / $49.80 = 37.9% $5.30 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $85.83 72.3% upside ($85.83 - $49.80) / $49.80 = 72.3% $5.30 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $102.99 106.8% upside ($102.99 - $49.80) / $49.80 = 106.8% $5.30 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.2x
5.3$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.30, the base-case value is $85.83 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.52.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $20.52 (below our primary estimate by 76%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples