WLY - John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
65% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.19$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.3x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.19, the base-case value is $32.85 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.49.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 43%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 93% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $20.49 (below our primary estimate by 38%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples