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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 20
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $115.00
LOW: $66.00
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $84.89
UPSIDE: 33.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.0% below fair value
Current Price $63.61
Bear Case $77.11 21.2% upside ($77.11 - $63.61) / $63.61 = 21.2% $5.95 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $96.39 51.5% upside ($96.39 - $63.61) / $63.61 = 51.5% $5.95 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $115.67 81.8% upside ($115.67 - $63.61) / $63.61 = 81.8% $5.95 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.2x
5.95$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.95, the base-case value is $96.39 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (32 analysts) $84.89
Analyst Range $66.00 – $115.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 14%

Warnings

⚠ This stock is 49% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples