AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Winmark Corporation as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag WINA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Winmark Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for WINA comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value WINA?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. WINA was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from WINA's most recent reported fundamentals.

WINA - Winmark Corporation

Price: -- -- | PRICE TARGET: $445.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 91.4% above fair value

Current Price $346.07

Bear Case $158.20 54.3% downside ($158.20 - $346.07) / $346.07 = -54.3% $11.30 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $180.80 47.8% downside ($180.80 - $346.07) / $346.07 = -47.8% $11.30 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $203.40 41.2% downside ($203.40 - $346.07) / $346.07 = -41.2% $11.30 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.0x

Adjusted EPS

11.3$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 30.6x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $11.30, the base-case value is $180.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $2245.26.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 124% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $2245.26 (above our primary estimate by 1142%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples