Winmark Corporation logo WINA - Winmark Corporation

Price: -- -- | PRICE TARGET: $445.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $445.00
LOW: $445.00
MEDIAN: $445.00
CONSENSUS: $445.00
UPSIDE: 21.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 100.9% above fair value
Current Price $364.86
Bear Case $158.90 56.4% downside ($158.90 - $364.86) / $364.86 = -56.4% $11.35 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $181.60 50.2% downside ($181.60 - $364.86) / $364.86 = -50.2% $11.35 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $204.30 44.0% downside ($204.30 - $364.86) / $364.86 = -44.0% $11.35 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
11.35$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $11.35, the base-case value is $181.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $7341.70.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 123% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $7341.70 (above our primary estimate by 3943%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples