Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. logo WH - Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $97.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $108.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $98.00
CONSENSUS: $97.29
UPSIDE: 27.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 49.5% above fair value
Current Price $76.27
Bear Case $40.80 46.5% downside ($40.80 - $76.27) / $76.27 = -46.5% $3.40 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $51.00 33.1% downside ($51.00 - $76.27) / $76.27 = -33.1% $3.40 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $61.20 19.8% downside ($61.20 - $76.27) / $76.27 = -19.8% $3.40 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.4$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.40, the base-case value is $51.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $83.28.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (22 analysts) $97.29
Analyst Range $80.00 – $108.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 48%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 38%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $83.28 (above our primary estimate by 63%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $97.29 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples