Weatherford International plc logo WFRD - Weatherford International plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $156.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $156.00
LOW: $156.00
MEDIAN: $156.00
CONSENSUS: $156.00
UPSIDE: 75.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.6% below fair value
Current Price $88.68
Bear Case $52.42 40.9% downside ($52.42 - $88.68) / $88.68 = -40.9% FCF $349M × 10x
Fair Value $97.00 9.4% upside ($97.00 - $88.68) / $88.68 = 9.4% FCF $450M × 13x
Bull Case $153.04 72.6% upside ($153.04 - $88.68) / $88.68 = 72.6% FCF $551M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $156.00 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.00 per share.

Warnings

Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $156.00 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential