Wells Fargo & Company logo WFC - Wells Fargo & Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 28
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $99.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $108.00
LOW: $92.00
MEDIAN: $99.00
CONSENSUS: $99.13
UPSIDE: 18.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.9% below fair value
Current Price $83.55
Bear Case $59.80 28.4% downside ($59.80 - $83.55) / $83.55 = -28.4% ROTCE 10.7% → 1.21x TBV
Fair Value $91.66 9.7% upside ($91.66 - $83.55) / $83.55 = 9.7% ROTCE 14.2% → 1.85x TBV
Bull Case $110.78 32.6% upside ($110.78 - $83.55) / $83.55 = 32.6% ROTCE 16.4% → 2.24x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
9.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (9.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.69x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.2% vs. 9.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.85x on $49.54 tangible book, implying $91.66 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (60 analysts) $99.13
Analyst Range $92.00 – $108.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 8%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly