Wells Fargo & Company logo WFC - Wells Fargo & Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 27
HOLD 29
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $99.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $113.00
LOW: $74.00
MEDIAN: $101.50
CONSENSUS: $99.38
UPSIDE: 30.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.0% below fair value
Current Price $76.40
Bear Case $60.79 20.4% downside ($60.79 - $76.40) / $76.40 = -20.4% ROTCE 10.7% → 1.20x TBV
Fair Value $93.19 22.0% upside ($93.19 - $76.40) / $76.40 = 22.0% ROTCE 14.2% → 1.84x TBV
Bull Case $112.64 47.4% upside ($112.64 - $76.40) / $76.40 = 47.4% ROTCE 16.4% → 2.22x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
9.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.56x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $99.38 from 60 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $93.19 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly