Wells Fargo & Company logo WFC - Wells Fargo & Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 27
HOLD 29
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $100.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $108.00
LOW: $93.00
MEDIAN: $102.00
CONSENSUS: $100.00
UPSIDE: 14.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.2% below fair value
Current Price $87.12
Bear Case $62.63 28.1% downside ($62.63 - $87.12) / $87.12 = -28.1% ROTCE 10.7% → 1.25x TBV
Fair Value $96.00 10.2% upside ($96.00 - $87.12) / $87.12 = 10.2% ROTCE 14.2% → 1.92x TBV
Bull Case $116.03 33.2% upside ($116.03 - $87.12) / $87.12 = 33.2% ROTCE 16.4% → 2.32x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
9.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (9.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.78x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.00 from 60 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $96.00 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly