Wells Fargo & Company logo WFC-PL - Wells Fargo & Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 19
HOLD 18
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.2% below fair value
Current Price $1181.24
Bear Case $878.12 25.7% downside ($878.12 - $1,181.24) / $1,181.24 = -25.7% ROTCE 10.7% → 1.20x TBV
Fair Value $1,346.05 14.0% upside ($1,346.05 - $1,181.24) / $1,181.24 = 14.0% ROTCE 14.2% → 1.84x TBV
Bull Case $1,626.82 37.7% upside ($1,626.82 - $1,181.24) / $1,181.24 = 37.7% ROTCE 16.4% → 2.22x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
9.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.61x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.2% vs. 9.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.84x on $733.34 tangible book, implying $1346.05 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly