WEX Inc. logo WEX - WEX Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 18
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $174.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $220.00
LOW: $152.00
MEDIAN: $165.00
CONSENSUS: $174.29
UPSIDE: 12.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.7% above fair value
Current Price $155.04
Bear Case $121.82 21.4% downside ($121.82 - $155.04) / $155.04 = -21.4% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $153.97 0.7% downside ($153.97 - $155.04) / $155.04 = -0.7% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $184.45 19.0% upside ($184.45 - $155.04) / $155.04 = 19.0% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 20.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.6% vs our 8.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $174.29 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $153.97 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions