Western Midstream Partners, LP logo WES - Western Midstream Partners, LP

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.71 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $46.00
MEDIAN: $48.00
CONSENSUS: $49.71
UPSIDE: 10.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.4% below fair value
Current Price $45.13
Bear Case $38.57 14.5% downside ($38.57 - $45.13) / $45.13 = -14.5% $3.00 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $48.21 6.8% upside ($48.21 - $45.13) / $45.13 = 6.8% $3.00 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $57.85 28.2% upside ($57.85 - $45.13) / $45.13 = 28.2% $3.00 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.1x
3.0$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.00, the base-case value is $48.21 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $49.71
Analyst Range $46.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 3%

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 123% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples