Werner Enterprises, Inc. logo WERN - Werner Enterprises, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 11
HOLD 22
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $29.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $43.56
UPSIDE: 18.76%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 109.6% above fair value
Current Price $36.68
Bear Case $6.99 80.9% downside ($6.99 - $36.68) / $36.68 = -80.9% $2.53 × 4x + net cash
Fair Value $17.50 52.3% downside ($17.50 - $36.68) / $36.68 = -52.3% $2.53 × 6x + net cash
Bull Case $27.98 23.7% downside ($27.98 - $36.68) / $36.68 = -23.7% $2.53 × 7x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

5.5x
2.53$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.53)

Implied Market Multiple 14.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.56 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.50 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $43.56 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing