WEC Energy Group, Inc. logo WEC - WEC Energy Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 21
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
1
| PRICE TARGET: $124.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $135.00
LOW: $117.00
MEDIAN: $124.00
CONSENSUS: $124.29
UPSIDE: 9.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 21.6% above fair value
Current Price $113.35
Bear Case $81.58 28.0% downside ($81.58 - $113.35) / $113.35 = -28.0% $5.00 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $93.24 17.7% downside ($93.24 - $113.35) / $113.35 = -17.7% $5.00 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $104.89 7.5% downside ($104.89 - $113.35) / $113.35 = -7.5% $5.00 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
5.0$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $124.29 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $93.24 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $160.98 (above our primary estimate by 101%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $124.29 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples