WEC Energy Group, Inc. logo WEC - WEC Energy Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 21
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
1
| PRICE TARGET: $119.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $127.00
LOW: $114.00
MEDIAN: $117.00
CONSENSUS: $119.80
UPSIDE: 12.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 37.4% above fair value
Current Price $106.15
Bear Case $67.62 36.3% downside ($67.62 - $106.15) / $106.15 = -36.3% $4.83 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $77.28 27.2% downside ($77.28 - $106.15) / $106.15 = -27.2% $4.83 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $86.94 18.1% downside ($86.94 - $106.15) / $106.15 = -18.1% $4.83 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
4.83$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.83, the base-case value is $77.28 per share. DDM cross-check: $162.04.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (35 analysts) $119.80
Analyst Range $114.00 – $127.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $162.04 (above our primary estimate by 110%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $119.80 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples