WEC Energy Group, Inc. logo WEC - WEC Energy Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 21
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
1
| PRICE TARGET: $122.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $135.00
LOW: $116.00
MEDIAN: $121.00
CONSENSUS: $122.56
UPSIDE: 8.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 22.2% above fair value
Current Price $113.30
Bear Case $81.13 28.4% downside ($81.13 - $113.30) / $113.30 = -28.4% $5.00 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $92.72 18.2% downside ($92.72 - $113.30) / $113.30 = -18.2% $5.00 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $104.31 7.9% downside ($104.31 - $113.30) / $113.30 = -7.9% $5.00 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
5.0$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $122.56 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.72 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $161.59 (above our primary estimate by 102%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $122.56 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples