WD-40 Company logo WDFC - WD-40 Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $475.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $650.00
LOW: $300.00
MEDIAN: $475.00
CONSENSUS: $475.00
UPSIDE: 123.31%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 133.2% above fair value
Current Price $212.71
Bear Case $72.96 65.7% downside ($72.96 - $212.71) / $212.71 = -65.7% $6.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $91.20 57.1% downside ($91.20 - $212.71) / $212.71 = -57.1% $6.08 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $109.44 48.5% downside ($109.44 - $212.71) / $212.71 = -48.5% $6.08 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 35.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.08, the base-case value is $91.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $173.01.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $475.00
Analyst Range $300.00 – $650.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 81%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $173.01 (above our primary estimate by 90%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $475.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples