WD-40 Company logo WDFC - WD-40 Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $475.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $650.00
LOW: $300.00
MEDIAN: $475.00
CONSENSUS: $475.00
UPSIDE: 103.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 30.9% above fair value
Current Price $233.47
Bear Case $142.64 38.9% downside ($142.64 - $233.47) / $233.47 = -38.9% $6.71 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $178.30 23.6% downside ($178.30 - $233.47) / $233.47 = -23.6% $6.71 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $213.97 8.4% downside ($213.97 - $233.47) / $233.47 = -8.4% $6.71 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.5x
6.71$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 34.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $475.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $178.30 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $169.06 (above our primary estimate by 62%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $475.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples