WDFC - WD-40 Company
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$475.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$650.00
LOW:
$300.00
MEDIAN:
$475.00
CONSENSUS:
$475.00
UPSIDE:
123.31%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
6.08$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
35.0x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.08, the base-case value is $91.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $173.01.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$475.00
Analyst Range
$300.00 – $650.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
81%
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $173.01 (above our primary estimate by 90%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $475.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples