WD-40 Company logo WDFC - WD-40 Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $300.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $300.00
LOW: $300.00
MEDIAN: $300.00
CONSENSUS: $300.00
UPSIDE: 44.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 44.7% above fair value
Current Price $207.30
Bear Case $114.64 44.7% downside ($114.64 - $207.30) / $207.30 = -44.7% $6.71 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $143.30 30.9% downside ($143.30 - $207.30) / $207.30 = -30.9% $6.71 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $171.96 17.0% downside ($171.96 - $207.30) / $207.30 = -17.0% $6.71 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.5x
6.71$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $300.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $143.30 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $165.10 (above our primary estimate by 59%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $300.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples