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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 44
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $647.58 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,050.00
LOW: $400.00
MEDIAN: $605.00
CONSENSUS: $647.58
UPSIDE: 40.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 15.4% below fair value
Current Price $462.00
Bear Case $437.04 5.4% downside ($437.04 - $462.00) / $462.00 = -5.4% $24.28 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $546.30 18.2% upside ($546.30 - $462.00) / $462.00 = 18.2% $24.28 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $655.56 41.9% upside ($655.56 - $462.00) / $462.00 = 41.9% $24.28 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
24.28$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $24.28, the base-case value is $546.30 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (61 analysts) $647.58
Analyst Range $400.00 – $1050.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples