Western Digital Corporation logo WDC - Western Digital Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 44
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $570.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,050.00
LOW: $250.00
MEDIAN: $575.00
CONSENSUS: $570.33
UPSIDE: 2.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 112.1% above fair value
Current Price $555.55
Bear Case $209.58 62.3% downside ($209.58 - $555.55) / $555.55 = -62.3% $5.15 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $261.94 52.8% downside ($261.94 - $555.55) / $555.55 = -52.8% $5.15 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $314.34 43.4% downside ($314.34 - $555.55) / $555.55 = -43.4% $5.15 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.6x
5.15$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 107.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $570.33 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $261.94 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $570.33 (from 61 analysts). Our estimate is 83% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples