Walker & Dunlop, Inc. logo WD - Walker & Dunlop, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $69.00
LOW: $69.00
MEDIAN: $69.00
CONSENSUS: $69.00
UPSIDE: 47.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 43.0% below fair value
Current Price $46.65
Bear Case $65.44 40.3% upside ($65.44 - $46.65) / $46.65 = 40.3% $5.17 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $81.80 75.4% upside ($81.80 - $46.65) / $46.65 = 75.4% $5.17 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $98.16 110.4% upside ($98.16 - $46.65) / $46.65 = 110.4% $5.17 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.6x
5.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.80 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 215%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 165% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples