Webster Financial Corporation logo WBS - Webster Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $74.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $76.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $75.00
CONSENSUS: $74.13
DOWNSIDE: 3.84%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 1.6% below fair value
Current Price $77.09
Bear Case $52.24 32.2% downside ($52.24 - $77.09) / $77.09 = -32.2% ROTCE 12.0% → 1.38x TBV
Fair Value $78.38 1.7% upside ($78.38 - $77.09) / $77.09 = 1.7% ROTCE 16.0% → 2.07x TBV
Bull Case $94.06 22.0% upside ($94.06 - $77.09) / $77.09 = 22.0% ROTCE 18.4% → 2.48x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.0%
9.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.0%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.99x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $74.13 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $78.38 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly