Webster Financial Corporation logo WBS - Webster Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 14
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $74.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $77.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $75.00
CONSENSUS: $74.33
UPSIDE: 3.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.5% below fair value
Current Price $71.80
Bear Case $51.75 27.9% downside ($51.75 - $71.80) / $71.80 = -27.9% ROTCE 12.0% → 1.36x TBV
Fair Value $77.65 8.1% upside ($77.65 - $71.80) / $71.80 = 8.1% ROTCE 16.0% → 2.04x TBV
Bull Case $93.19 29.8% upside ($93.19 - $71.80) / $71.80 = 29.8% ROTCE 18.4% → 2.45x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.0%
9.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.0%) vs. cost of equity (9.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.85x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $74.33 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $77.65 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly