Waystar Holding Corp. logo WAY - Waystar Holding Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 16
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.62 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $36.00
CONSENSUS: $35.62
UPSIDE: 82.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 51.5% below fair value
Current Price $19.57
Bear Case $21.03 7.5% upside ($21.03 - $19.57) / $19.57 = 7.5% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $40.38 106.3% upside ($40.38 - $19.57) / $19.57 = 106.3% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $63.23 223.1% upside ($63.23 - $19.57) / $19.57 = 223.1% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 20.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.62 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.38 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions