Waters Corporation logo WAT - Waters Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 19
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $400.78 DETAILS
HIGH: $435.00
LOW: $350.00
MEDIAN: $400.00
CONSENSUS: $400.78
UPSIDE: 6.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 56.3% above fair value
Current Price $376.43
Bear Case $192.70 48.8% downside ($192.70 - $376.43) / $376.43 = -48.8% $11.49 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $240.86 36.0% downside ($240.86 - $376.43) / $376.43 = -36.0% $11.49 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $289.04 23.2% downside ($289.04 - $376.43) / $376.43 = -23.2% $11.49 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
11.49$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $400.78 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $240.86 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $400.78 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples