Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation logo WAB - Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $305.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $318.00
LOW: $291.00
MEDIAN: $305.00
CONSENSUS: $305.00
UPSIDE: 18.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.5% above fair value
Current Price $256.41
Bear Case $137.30 46.5% downside ($137.30 - $256.41) / $256.41 = -46.5% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $190.58 25.7% downside ($190.58 - $256.41) / $256.41 = -25.7% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $241.51 5.8% downside ($241.51 - $256.41) / $256.41 = -5.8% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 33.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $305.00 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $190.58 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $305.00 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions