Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation logo WAB - Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $326.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $355.00
LOW: $291.00
MEDIAN: $335.00
CONSENSUS: $326.50
UPSIDE: 15.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 5.6% above fair value
Current Price $282.86
Bear Case $161.25 43.0% downside ($161.25 - $282.86) / $282.86 = -43.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $267.82 5.3% downside ($267.82 - $282.86) / $282.86 = -5.3% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $386.22 36.5% upside ($386.22 - $282.86) / $282.86 = 36.5% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 32.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.6% vs our 14.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $267.82 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (34 analysts) $326.50
Analyst Range $291.00 – $355.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 18%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions