NCR Voyix Corporation logo VYX - NCR Voyix Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $13.00
LOW: $9.00
MEDIAN: $12.00
CONSENSUS: $11.33
UPSIDE: 71.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 45.8% above fair value
Current Price $6.59
Bear Case $3.01 54.3% downside ($3.01 - $6.59) / $6.59 = -54.3% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $4.52 31.4% downside ($4.52 - $6.59) / $6.59 = -31.4% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $6.03 8.5% downside ($6.03 - $6.59) / $6.59 = -8.5% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 22.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.33 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $4.52 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($9.91) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case