Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. logo VYGR - Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $14.40
UPSIDE: 359.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 84.6% below fair value
Current Price $3.13
Bear Case $13.54 331.8% upside ($13.54 - $3.13) / $3.13 = 331.8% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $20.31 547.8% upside ($20.31 - $3.13) / $3.13 = 547.8% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $27.07 763.6% upside ($27.07 - $3.13) / $3.13 = 763.6% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 1.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.40 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.31 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.40 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 55% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case