Victoria's Secret & Company logo VSXY - Victoria's Secret & Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $88.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $99.00
LOW: $73.00
MEDIAN: $90.00
CONSENSUS: $88.00
UPSIDE: 6.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 80.4% above fair value
Current Price $82.79
Bear Case $40.17 51.5% downside ($40.17 - $82.79) / $82.79 = -51.5% $2.21 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $45.90 44.6% downside ($45.90 - $82.79) / $82.79 = -44.6% $2.21 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $51.64 37.6% downside ($51.64 - $82.79) / $82.79 = -37.6% $2.21 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 37.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $88.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.90 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $88.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples