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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $14.00
LOW: $7.50
MEDIAN: $10.75
CONSENSUS: $10.75
DOWNSIDE: 21.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 36.3% above fair value
Current Price $13.65
Bear Case $8.01 41.3% downside ($8.01 - $13.65) / $13.65 = -41.3% $0.67 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $10.01 26.6% downside ($10.01 - $13.65) / $13.65 = -26.6% $0.67 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $12.02 12.0% downside ($12.02 - $13.65) / $13.65 = -12.0% $0.67 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.67$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.67, the base-case value is $10.01 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $10.75
Analyst Range $7.50 – $14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 7%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples