VSH - Vishay Intertechnology, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$42.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$45.00
LOW:
$40.00
MEDIAN:
$42.50
CONSENSUS:
$42.50
UPSIDE:
39.66%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80% confidence
Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.05$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.05)
Implied Market Multiple
14.8x
Plain-Language Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.05 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $32.80 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.4x.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$42.50
Analyst Range
$40.00 – $45.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 2.4x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
This stock is 56% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing