Victoria's Secret & Co. logo VSCO - Victoria's Secret & Co.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $57.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $66.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $57.50
CONSENSUS: $57.67
UPSIDE: 9.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 37.8% above fair value
Current Price $52.45
Bear Case $30.45 41.9% downside ($30.45 - $52.45) / $52.45 = -41.9% $2.21 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $38.07 27.4% downside ($38.07 - $52.45) / $52.45 = -27.4% $2.21 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $45.68 12.9% downside ($45.68 - $52.45) / $52.45 = -12.9% $2.21 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $57.67 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.07 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $57.67 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples