Victoria's Secret & Co. logo VSCO - Victoria's Secret & Co.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $57.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $58.00
LOW: $56.00
MEDIAN: $57.00
CONSENSUS: $57.00
DOWNSIDE: 29.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 112.9% above fair value
Current Price $80.76
Bear Case $30.34 62.4% downside ($30.34 - $80.76) / $80.76 = -62.4% $2.21 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $37.94 53.0% downside ($37.94 - $80.76) / $80.76 = -53.0% $2.21 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $45.52 43.6% downside ($45.52 - $80.76) / $80.76 = -43.6% $2.21 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 36.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $57.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.94 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $57.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples