Viasat, Inc. logo VSAT - Viasat, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 8
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $68.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $48.00
MEDIAN: $62.50
CONSENSUS: $68.25
DOWNSIDE: 8.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 222.1% above fair value
Current Price $74.56
Bear Case $18.52 75.2% downside ($18.52 - $74.56) / $74.56 = -75.2% $0.41 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $23.14 69.0% downside ($23.14 - $74.56) / $74.56 = -69.0% $0.41 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $27.77 62.8% downside ($27.77 - $74.56) / $74.56 = -62.8% $0.41 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.8x
0.41$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 181.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $68.25 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.14 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $68.25 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples