Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated logo VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 47
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $552.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $616.00
LOW: $436.00
MEDIAN: $558.00
CONSENSUS: $552.80
UPSIDE: 26.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.4% below fair value
Current Price $436.00
Bear Case $301.47 30.9% downside ($301.47 - $436.00) / $436.00 = -30.9% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $486.66 11.6% upside ($486.66 - $436.00) / $436.00 = 11.6% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $700.39 60.6% upside ($700.39 - $436.00) / $436.00 = 60.6% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 33.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $552.80 from 56 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $486.66 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions