Vertiv Holdings Co logo VRT - Vertiv Holdings Co

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $375.08 DETAILS
HIGH: $500.00
LOW: $277.00
MEDIAN: $355.00
CONSENSUS: $375.08
UPSIDE: 17.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 45.9% above fair value
Current Price $318.86
Bear Case $124.63 60.9% downside ($124.63 - $318.86) / $318.86 = -60.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $218.52 31.5% downside ($218.52 - $318.86) / $318.86 = -31.5% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $331.74 4.0% upside ($331.74 - $318.86) / $318.86 = 4.0% 24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 66.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 27.2% vs our 18.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $375.08 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $218.52 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $375.08 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions