Vertiv Holdings Co logo VRT - Vertiv Holdings Co

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $368.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $500.00
LOW: $320.00
MEDIAN: $364.00
CONSENSUS: $368.75
UPSIDE: 31.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 63.7% above fair value
Current Price $280.53
Bear Case $97.82 65.1% downside ($97.82 - $280.53) / $280.53 = -65.1% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $171.40 38.9% downside ($171.40 - $280.53) / $280.53 = -38.9% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $260.13 7.3% downside ($260.13 - $280.53) / $280.53 = -7.3% 24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 57.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 25.1% vs our 18.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $171.40 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $368.75
Analyst Range $320.00 – $500.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 54%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $368.75 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions