Verisk Analytics, Inc. logo VRSK - Verisk Analytics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 8
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $226.11 DETAILS
HIGH: $260.00
LOW: $185.00
MEDIAN: $224.00
CONSENSUS: $226.11
UPSIDE: 15.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 18.7% above fair value
Current Price $195.25
Bear Case $137.71 29.5% downside ($137.71 - $195.25) / $195.25 = -29.5% $6.70 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $164.49 15.8% downside ($164.49 - $195.25) / $195.25 = -15.8% $6.70 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $191.26 2.0% downside ($191.26 - $195.25) / $195.25 = -2.0% $6.70 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
6.7$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 29.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $226.11 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $164.49 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $226.11 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples