Verisk Analytics, Inc. logo VRSK - Verisk Analytics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 8
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $225.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $247.00
LOW: $185.00
MEDIAN: $231.50
CONSENSUS: $225.50
UPSIDE: 21.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 33.1% above fair value
Current Price $185.79
Bear Case $116.82 37.1% downside ($116.82 - $185.79) / $185.79 = -37.1% $6.49 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $139.53 24.9% downside ($139.53 - $185.79) / $185.79 = -24.9% $6.49 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $162.25 12.7% downside ($162.25 - $185.79) / $185.79 = -12.7% $6.49 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
6.49$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.49, the base-case value is $139.53 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (25 analysts) $225.50
Analyst Range $185.00 – $247.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 38%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $225.50 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples