VRSK - Verisk Analytics, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$231.25
DETAILS
HIGH:
$260.00
LOW:
$223.00
MEDIAN:
$227.00
CONSENSUS:
$231.25
UPSIDE:
35.15%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
65% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
6.7$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.6x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $231.25 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $165.77 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $231.25 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples