Verisk Analytics, Inc. logo VRSK - Verisk Analytics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 8
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $231.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $260.00
LOW: $223.00
MEDIAN: $227.00
CONSENSUS: $231.25
UPSIDE: 35.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.2% above fair value
Current Price $171.11
Bear Case $138.78 18.9% downside ($138.78 - $171.11) / $171.11 = -18.9% $6.70 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $165.77 3.1% downside ($165.77 - $171.11) / $171.11 = -3.1% $6.70 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $192.76 12.7% upside ($192.76 - $171.11) / $171.11 = 12.7% $6.70 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
6.7$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $231.25 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $165.77 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $231.25 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples