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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $14.50
LOW: $14.50
MEDIAN: $14.50
CONSENSUS: $14.50
DOWNSIDE: 21.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 186.4% above fair value
Current Price $18.47
Bear Case $5.16 72.1% downside ($5.16 - $18.47) / $18.47 = -72.1% $0.43 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $6.45 65.1% downside ($6.45 - $18.47) / $18.47 = -65.1% $0.43 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $7.74 58.1% downside ($7.74 - $18.47) / $18.47 = -58.1% $0.43 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.43$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 43.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.43, the base-case value is $6.45 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $14.50
Analyst Range $14.50 – $14.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 56%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $14.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples