Veris Residential, Inc. logo VRE - Veris Residential, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $14.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $14.00
CONSENSUS: $14.00
DOWNSIDE: 26.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.2% below fair value
Current Price $19.00
Bear Case $23.62 24.3% upside ($23.62 - $19.00) / $19.00 = 24.3% $1.72 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $28.04 47.6% upside ($28.04 - $19.00) / $19.00 = 47.6% $1.72 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $32.45 70.8% upside ($32.45 - $19.00) / $19.00 = 70.8% $1.72 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
1.72$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.72) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.04 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.7% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (81% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 125% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify