Vodafone Group Public Limited Company logo VOD - Vodafone Group Public Limited Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 8
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.58 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.58
LOW: $11.58
MEDIAN: $11.58
CONSENSUS: $11.58
DOWNSIDE: 29.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.2% below fair value
Current Price $16.36
Bear Case $16.62 1.6% upside ($16.62 - $16.36) / $16.36 = 1.6% $1.06 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $20.77 26.9% upside ($20.77 - $16.36) / $16.36 = 26.9% $1.06 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $24.92 52.3% upside ($24.92 - $16.36) / $16.36 = 52.3% $1.06 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
1.06$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.58 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.77 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $11.58 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 106% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1390 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples