Vodafone Group Public Limited Company logo VOD - Vodafone Group Public Limited Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 8
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.93 DETAILS
HIGH: $20.93
LOW: $20.93
MEDIAN: $20.93
CONSENSUS: $20.93
UPSIDE: 31.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 49.6% above fair value
Current Price $15.87
Bear Case $8.49 46.5% downside ($8.49 - $15.87) / $15.87 = -46.5% $0.47 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $10.61 33.1% downside ($10.61 - $15.87) / $15.87 = -33.1% $0.47 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $12.73 19.8% downside ($12.73 - $15.87) / $15.87 = -19.8% $0.47 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
0.47$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 33.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.47, the base-case value is $10.61 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (25 analysts) $20.93
Analyst Range $20.93 – $20.93
Divergence from AlphaVal 49%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $20.93 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1227 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples