Vodafone Group Public Limited Company logo VOD - Vodafone Group Public Limited Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 7
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.58 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.58
LOW: $11.58
MEDIAN: $11.58
CONSENSUS: $11.58
DOWNSIDE: 22.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.3% below fair value
Current Price $14.94
Bear Case $16.92 13.2% upside ($16.92 - $14.94) / $14.94 = 13.2% $1.08 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $21.14 41.5% upside ($21.14 - $14.94) / $14.94 = 41.5% $1.08 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $25.37 69.8% upside ($25.37 - $14.94) / $14.94 = 69.8% $1.08 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
1.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.58 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.14 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $11.58 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 110% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1630 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples