VNET Group, Inc. logo VNET - VNET Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.55 DETAILS
HIGH: $23.55
LOW: $23.55
MEDIAN: $23.55
CONSENSUS: $23.55
UPSIDE: 146.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.7% above fair value
Current Price $9.54
Bear Case $5.89 38.2% downside ($5.89 - $9.54) / $9.54 = -38.2% $0.10 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $7.36 22.9% downside ($7.36 - $9.54) / $9.54 = -22.9% $0.10 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $8.82 7.5% downside ($8.82 - $9.54) / $9.54 = -7.5% $0.10 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

20.2x
0.1$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 98.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.55 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.36 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $23.55 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1472 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples