AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag VNDA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for VNDA comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value VNDA?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. VNDA was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from VNDA's most recent reported fundamentals.

VNDA - Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $15.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 95.8% above fair value

Current Price $4.57

Bear Case $2.00 56.2% downside ($2.00 - $4.57) / $4.57 = -56.2% $0.17 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $2.33 48.9% downside ($2.33 - $4.57) / $4.57 = -48.9% $0.17 × 14x P/E

Bull Case $2.67 41.6% downside ($2.67 - $4.57) / $4.57 = -41.6% $0.17 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

14.0x

Adjusted EPS

0.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 27.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.17, the base-case value is $2.33 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (19 analysts) $15.50

Analyst Range $10.00 – $21.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 85%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

⚠ This stock is 54% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples