Vivmark Residential logo VMRK - Vivmark Residential

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 31
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $71.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $79.00
LOW: $66.00
MEDIAN: $72.00
CONSENSUS: $71.75
UPSIDE: 17.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.6% below fair value
Current Price $60.86
Bear Case $77.26 27.0% upside ($77.26 - $60.86) / $60.86 = 27.0% $5.72 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $91.60 50.5% upside ($91.60 - $60.86) / $60.86 = 50.5% $5.72 FFO × 19x
Bull Case $105.94 74.1% upside ($105.94 - $60.86) / $60.86 = 74.1% $5.72 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

19.0x
5.72$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.72) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 10.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $5.72 FFO/share with a 19x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $91.60 per share. Dividend yield: 4.6%. DDM cross-check: $51.92.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (46 analysts) $71.75
Analyst Range $66.00 – $79.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 28%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $51.92 (43% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $71.75 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify