VLY - Valley National Bancorp
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$16.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$17.00
LOW:
$15.50
MEDIAN:
$16.50
CONSENSUS:
$16.50
UPSIDE:
31.68%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
10.2%
10.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (10.2%) vs. cost of equity (10.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.19x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 10.2% vs. 10.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.98x on $10.57 tangible book, implying $15.15 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$16.50
Analyst Range
$15.50 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (10.2%) is below the minimum investors require (10.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly