Valley National Bancorp logo VLY - Valley National Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.58 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $14.50
MEDIAN: $15.50
CONSENSUS: $15.58
UPSIDE: 14.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.2% below fair value
Current Price $13.55
Bear Case $10.69 21.1% downside ($10.69 - $13.55) / $13.55 = -21.1% ROTCE 7.7% → 0.59x TBV
Fair Value $15.26 12.6% upside ($15.26 - $13.55) / $13.55 = 12.6% ROTCE 10.2% → 1.01x TBV
Bull Case $19.84 46.4% upside ($19.84 - $13.55) / $13.55 = 46.4% ROTCE 11.7% → 1.26x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.2%
10.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.2%) vs. cost of equity (10.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.28x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.58 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.26 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly