Valley National Bancorp logo VLY - Valley National Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.42 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.50
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $16.50
CONSENSUS: $16.42
UPSIDE: 10.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.1% below fair value
Current Price $14.84
Bear Case $10.83 27.0% downside ($10.83 - $14.84) / $14.84 = -27.0% ROTCE 7.7% → 0.60x TBV
Fair Value $15.47 4.2% upside ($15.47 - $14.84) / $14.84 = 4.2% ROTCE 10.2% → 1.02x TBV
Bull Case $20.11 35.5% upside ($20.11 - $14.84) / $14.84 = 35.5% ROTCE 11.7% → 1.28x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.2%
10.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.2%) vs. cost of equity (10.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.42 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.47 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly