Virtu Financial, Inc. logo VIRT - Virtu Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 7
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $63.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $57.00
MEDIAN: $63.00
CONSENSUS: $63.33
DOWNSIDE: 1.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.9% below fair value
Current Price $64.43
Bear Case $57.77 10.3% downside ($57.77 - $64.43) / $64.43 = -10.3% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $82.52 28.1% upside ($82.52 - $64.43) / $64.43 = 28.1% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $107.28 66.5% upside ($107.28 - $64.43) / $64.43 = 66.5% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

168.2%
7.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (168.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 19.87x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 168.2% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $3.24 tangible book, implying $82.52 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $63.33
Analyst Range $57.00 – $70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 30%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $63.33 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly