VIRT - Virtu Financial, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$63.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$70.00
LOW:
$57.00
MEDIAN:
$63.00
CONSENSUS:
$63.33
DOWNSIDE:
1.71%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
168.2%
7.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (168.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
19.87x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 168.2% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $3.24 tangible book, implying $82.52 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$63.33
Analyst Range
$57.00 – $70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $63.33 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly