Viking Holdings Ltd logo VIK - Viking Holdings Ltd

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $103.07 DETAILS
HIGH: $120.00
LOW: $75.00
MEDIAN: $105.00
CONSENSUS: $103.07
DOWNSIDE: 1.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.2% above fair value
Current Price $104.54
Bear Case $56.08 46.4% downside ($56.08 - $104.54) / $104.54 = -46.4% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $104.35 0.2% downside ($104.35 - $104.54) / $104.54 = -0.2% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $164.59 57.4% upside ($164.59 - $104.54) / $104.54 = 57.4% 26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 39.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 20.0% vs our 20.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.07 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.35 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions