Vicor Corporation logo VICR - Vicor Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $387.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $400.00
LOW: $375.00
MEDIAN: $387.50
CONSENSUS: $387.50
UPSIDE: 35.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 58.3% above fair value
Current Price $285.34
Bear Case $96.40 66.2% downside ($96.40 - $285.34) / $285.34 = -66.2% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $180.25 36.8% downside ($180.25 - $285.34) / $285.34 = -36.8% 23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $293.52 2.9% upside ($293.52 - $285.34) / $285.34 = 2.9% 31% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (23% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 117.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 35.0% vs our 23.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $387.50 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $180.25 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $387.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions