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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $347.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $375.00
LOW: $320.00
MEDIAN: $347.50
CONSENSUS: $347.50
UPSIDE: 67.36%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 62.5% above fair value
Current Price $207.64
Bear Case $68.33 67.1% downside ($68.33 - $207.64) / $207.64 = -67.1% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $127.79 38.5% downside ($127.79 - $207.64) / $207.64 = -38.5% 23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $208.07 0.2% upside ($208.07 - $207.64) / $207.64 = 0.2% 31% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (23% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 84.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 30.5% vs our 23.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $127.79 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $347.50
Analyst Range $320.00 – $375.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 63%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $347.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions