Veeco Instruments Inc. logo VECO - Veeco Instruments Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
DOWNSIDE: 7.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 85.7% above fair value
Current Price $59.55
Bear Case $24.84 58.3% downside ($24.84 - $59.55) / $59.55 = -58.3% $1.25 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $32.08 46.1% downside ($32.08 - $59.55) / $59.55 = -46.1% $1.25 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $39.31 34.0% downside ($39.31 - $59.55) / $59.55 = -34.0% $1.25 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.25$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.25)

Implied Market Multiple 47.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.08 per share.

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 5.5x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing