VCTR - Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$91.25
DETAILS
HIGH:
$95.00
LOW:
$85.00
MEDIAN:
$92.50
CONSENSUS:
$91.25
DOWNSIDE:
6.60%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
13.6%
10.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (10.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.52x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.25 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.50 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly