Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. logo VCTR - Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $85.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $76.00
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $85.33
DOWNSIDE: 0.68%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.8% below fair value
Current Price $85.91
Bear Case $67.42 21.5% downside ($67.42 - $85.91) / $85.91 = -21.5% ROTCE 10.2% → 0.97x TBV
Fair Value $96.31 12.1% upside ($96.31 - $85.91) / $85.91 = 12.1% ROTCE 13.6% → 1.51x TBV
Bull Case $125.21 45.7% upside ($125.21 - $85.91) / $85.91 = 45.7% ROTCE 15.7% → 1.83x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.6%
10.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (10.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.22x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.33 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $96.31 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly