Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. logo VCTR - Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $91.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $85.00
MEDIAN: $92.50
CONSENSUS: $91.25
DOWNSIDE: 9.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.2% above fair value
Current Price $100.58
Bear Case $68.25 32.1% downside ($68.25 - $100.58) / $100.58 = -32.1% ROTCE 10.2% → 0.97x TBV
Fair Value $97.50 3.1% downside ($97.50 - $100.58) / $100.58 = -3.1% ROTCE 13.6% → 1.50x TBV
Bull Case $126.75 26.0% upside ($126.75 - $100.58) / $100.58 = 26.0% ROTCE 15.7% → 1.82x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.6%
10.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (10.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.59x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.25 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.50 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly