VBTX - Veritex Holdings, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$30.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$33.00
LOW:
$28.00
MEDIAN:
$30.00
CONSENSUS:
$30.33
UPSIDE:
0.23%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
9.2%
10.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.2%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.42x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.33 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.52 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (9.2%) is below the minimum investors require (10.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.67 (42% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $30.33 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly