Voyager Acquisition Corp. logo VACH - Voyager Acquisition Corp.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 50% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 18.5% above fair value
Current Price $9.60
Bear Case $6.48 32.5% downside ($6.48 - $9.60) / $9.60 = -32.5% $0.36 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $8.10 15.6% downside ($8.10 - $9.60) / $9.60 = -15.6% $0.36 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $9.72 1.2% upside ($9.72 - $9.60) / $9.60 = 1.2% $0.36 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
0.36$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.36, the base-case value is $8.10 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples