Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation logo VAC - Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $85.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $105.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $93.00
CONSENSUS: $85.67
UPSIDE: 13.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.3% below fair value
Current Price $75.19
Bear Case $73.66 2.0% downside ($73.66 - $75.19) / $75.19 = -2.0% $5.61 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $92.08 22.5% upside ($92.08 - $75.19) / $75.19 = 22.5% $5.61 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $110.49 46.9% upside ($110.49 - $75.19) / $75.19 = 46.9% $5.61 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.8x
5.61$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.67 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.08 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $238.80 (above our primary estimate by 153%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples