AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag VAC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for VAC comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value VAC?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. VAC was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from VAC's most recent reported fundamentals.

VAC - Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $107.43 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 13.2% above fair value

Current Price $106.62

Bear Case $75.37 29.3% downside ($75.37 - $106.62) / $106.62 = -29.3% $5.61 × 13x P/E

Fair Value $94.21 11.6% downside ($94.21 - $106.62) / $106.62 = -11.6% $5.61 × 17x P/E

Bull Case $113.05 6.0% upside ($113.05 - $106.62) / $106.62 = 6.0% $5.61 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.8x

Adjusted EPS

5.61$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 19.0x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.61, the base-case value is $94.21 per share. DDM cross-check: $163.14.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $107.43

Analyst Range $65.00 – $140.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $163.14 (above our primary estimate by 73%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples