Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation logo VAC - Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $91.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $119.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $100.00
CONSENSUS: $91.29
DOWNSIDE: 6.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 4.4% above fair value
Current Price $97.58
Bear Case $74.79 23.4% downside ($74.79 - $97.58) / $97.58 = -23.4% $5.61 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $93.48 4.2% downside ($93.48 - $97.58) / $97.58 = -4.2% $5.61 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $112.17 15.0% upside ($112.17 - $97.58) / $97.58 = 15.0% $5.61 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.8x
5.61$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.29 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $93.48 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $238.80 (above our primary estimate by 153%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples