Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. logo UVE - Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $40.00
UPSIDE: 2.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 35.6% below fair value
Current Price $38.98
Bear Case $52.45 34.6% upside ($52.45 - $38.98) / $38.98 = 34.6% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.47x TBV
Fair Value $60.55 55.3% upside ($60.55 - $38.98) / $38.98 = 55.3% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $60.55 55.3% upside ($60.55 - $38.98) / $38.98 = 55.3% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

43.3%
8.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (43.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.58x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 43.3% vs. 8.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $15.14 tangible book, implying $60.55 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly