Is UUGRY undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies United Utilities Group PLC as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag UUGRY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is United Utilities Group PLC's fair value?

Fair value for UUGRY comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value UUGRY?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. UUGRY was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from UUGRY's most recent reported fundamentals.

UUGRY - United Utilities Group PLC

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 6.8% above fair value

Current Price $39.83

Bear Case $32.63 18.1% downside ($32.63 - $39.83) / $39.83 = -18.1% $2.33 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $37.29 6.4% downside ($37.29 - $39.83) / $39.83 = -6.4% $2.33 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $41.95 5.3% upside ($41.95 - $39.83) / $39.83 = 5.3% $2.33 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.0x

Adjusted EPS

2.33$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 17.1x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.33, the base-case value is $37.29 per share. DDM cross-check: $153.30.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 119% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $153.30 (above our primary estimate by 311%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from GBP into USD using GBPUSD at 1.3395 USD per GBP.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples