Utah Medical Products, Inc. logo UTMD - Utah Medical Products, Inc.

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 42.2% above fair value
Current Price $74.23
Bear Case $41.76 43.7% downside ($41.76 - $74.23) / $74.23 = -43.7% $3.48 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $52.20 29.7% downside ($52.20 - $74.23) / $74.23 = -29.7% $3.48 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $62.64 15.6% downside ($62.64 - $74.23) / $74.23 = -15.6% $3.48 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.48$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.48, the base-case value is $52.20 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples