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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 33.4% above fair value
Current Price $69.64
Bear Case $41.76 40.0% downside ($41.76 - $69.64) / $69.64 = -40.0% $3.48 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $52.20 25.0% downside ($52.20 - $69.64) / $69.64 = -25.0% $3.48 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $62.64 10.1% downside ($62.64 - $69.64) / $69.64 = -10.1% $3.48 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.48$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.48, the base-case value is $52.20 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples