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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 22.8% above fair value
Current Price $64.51
Bear Case $42.01 34.9% downside ($42.01 - $64.51) / $64.51 = -34.9% $3.50 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $52.52 18.6% downside ($52.52 - $64.51) / $64.51 = -18.6% $3.50 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $63.02 2.3% downside ($63.02 - $64.51) / $64.51 = -2.3% $3.50 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.50, the base-case value is $52.52 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples