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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 32.1% above fair value
Current Price $69.40
Bear Case $42.01 39.5% downside ($42.01 - $69.40) / $69.40 = -39.5% $3.50 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $52.52 24.3% downside ($52.52 - $69.40) / $69.40 = -24.3% $3.50 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $63.02 9.2% downside ($63.02 - $69.40) / $69.40 = -9.2% $3.50 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.50, the base-case value is $52.52 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples