United Therapeutics Corporation logo UTHR - United Therapeutics Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $653.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $735.00
LOW: $368.00
MEDIAN: $721.00
CONSENSUS: $653.00
UPSIDE: 15.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 36.7% below fair value
Current Price $563.49
Bear Case $535.88 4.9% downside ($535.88 - $563.49) / $563.49 = -4.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $890.82 58.1% upside ($890.82 - $563.49) / $563.49 = 58.1% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,314.29 133.2% upside ($1,314.29 - $563.49) / $563.49 = 133.2% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 24.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.4% vs our 17.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $890.82 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $653.00
Analyst Range $368.00 – $735.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 36%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $653.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions