United Therapeutics Corporation logo UTHR - United Therapeutics Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $643.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $735.00
LOW: $515.00
MEDIAN: $662.50
CONSENSUS: $643.75
UPSIDE: 32.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.8% below fair value
Current Price $487.61
Bear Case $541.48 11.0% upside ($541.48 - $487.61) / $487.61 = 11.0% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $900.14 84.6% upside ($900.14 - $487.61) / $487.61 = 84.6% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,328.03 172.4% upside ($1,328.03 - $487.61) / $487.61 = 172.4% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 20.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.2% vs our 17.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $900.14 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $643.75
Analyst Range $515.00 – $735.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 40%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $643.75 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions