United Therapeutics Corporation logo UTHR - United Therapeutics Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $635.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $735.00
LOW: $516.00
MEDIAN: $625.00
CONSENSUS: $635.20
UPSIDE: 18.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.9% below fair value
Current Price $535.83
Bear Case $488.03 8.9% downside ($488.03 - $535.83) / $535.83 = -8.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $810.93 51.3% upside ($810.93 - $535.83) / $535.83 = 51.3% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,196.18 123.2% upside ($1,196.18 - $535.83) / $535.83 = 123.2% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 22.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.8% vs our 17.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $635.20 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $810.93 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $635.20 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions