United Therapeutics Corporation logo UTHR - United Therapeutics Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $636.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $735.00
LOW: $516.00
MEDIAN: $635.00
CONSENSUS: $636.83
UPSIDE: 12.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.0% below fair value
Current Price $568.43
Bear Case $489.02 14.0% downside ($489.02 - $568.43) / $568.43 = -14.0% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $812.05 42.9% upside ($812.05 - $568.43) / $568.43 = 42.9% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,197.43 110.7% upside ($1,197.43 - $568.43) / $568.43 = 110.7% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 24.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $636.83 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $812.05 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $636.83 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 39% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions